Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading | 
 enlarge | Author: Larry Williams
Publisher: Wiley
Category: Book
List Price: $85.00
Buy New: $56.61
You Save: $28.39 (33%)
New (17) Used (11) from $44.99
Rating:  42 reviews
Sales Rank: 92788
Media: Hardcover
Edition: 1
Pages: 272
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.5
Dimensions (in): 10.1 x 7.1 x 1.1
ISBN: 0471297224
Dewey Decimal Number: 332.6328
EAN: 9780471297222
ASIN: 0471297224
Publication Date: March 11, 1999
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Condition: New American book. Printed on demand and shipped within the US in 4-7 days (expedited) or about 10-14 days (standard). Standard can occasionally be slower so we advise using expedited if quicker delivery is important!
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Product Description
"The public thinks speculation is a game of knowing the future, of knowing that which cannot be known. They are wrong. It is a game of developing strategies with winning advantages, of getting the odds on your side, and then working those odds. Here's how I've done just that for the past 35 years.?Larry Williams. Short-term trading is how most traders and would-be traders play the markets. While it offers the greatest financial payoffs, it also presents the greatest challenge, requiring constant attention and vigilance, as well as a very strict plan. Written by Larry Williams, the most recognized and popular technical analyst for the past three decades, this groundbreaking book?his first in almost a decade?provides the blueprint necessary for sound and profitable short-term trading, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of what can be a fruitful, yet potentially dangerous venture. Sharing his years of experience as a seasoned and successful trader, Williams offers his market wisdom on a wide range of topics, from chaos and speculation to volatility breakouts and profit patterns. With his expert guidance, you'll learn about such fundamentals as how the market moves, what are the three most dominant cycles, when to exit a trade, and how to hold on to winners until the end of your chosen time frame. Along with in-depth analysis of the most effective short-term trading strategies and details on the best theory and implementation of money management, Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading features Williams's winning technical indicators, as well as his thoughts on a broad range of topics. A sampling: - "A short-term trader has one objective; to catch the current trend of the market. That's it. That's all you should try to do!"
- "The shorter your time frame of trading the less money you'll make." "You will never make big money until you learn to hold on to your winners, and the longer you hold the more potential you have for profiteering. . . . It takes time to make money regardless of the activity."
- "Wealth is not amassed with just good market calls. It also requires correct money management."
- "I think you need to fear the market and fear yourself. . . . Without fear there is no respect, if you do not respect the markets and fear yourself you will become one more dead body on the long trail of commodity market casualties scattered across the land." Filled with invaluable insight, precise rules and formulas, and helpful advice from one of today's most respected market players, this comprehensive and practical resource will serve as the basis for, if not indeed become, your short-term trading "gospel."
"Having known Larry for 25 years, I can truly say that this is his 'magnum opus'; the culmination of a brilliant career; must reading for anyone who trades futures with success as their goal!?Jake Bernstein, President, MBH Commodity Advisors, Northbrook, Illinois.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 37 more reviews...
 No Secret Here December 20, 2008
StockPicker (Florida, USA)
As human kind grows, the market, as an indication of the wealth, will be growing. There's no doubt that an upward bias exists in the market. Is this a secret? I did perform a similar test on the TDW idea and Wednesday turns out to be more consistently a winner using normalized data over a long period of time. However, when I broke down the data into yearly periods, most of the years appear very similar regardless of which day it is. Only a couple of years showed big differences. One exception is Friday, it is consistently bad. Even on yearly periods. I guess the book is sort of intriguing but do your homework first.
 Analysis is completely flawed - still a great read, but not to make money December 15, 2008
Nicolas Dickreuter
Interesting book, but it will end up costing you a lot of money if you use these trading secrets in practice. The analysis Williams is conducting is flawed and he seems to have absoltely no clue of modern statistical analysis. Whenever you make a winning trade over a period, you need to check whether it is statistically significant. He only relies on data like "total net profit of strategy" or "# of winning trades", "average winning trade" but does not test the probability that it is actually only a conincidence that the strategy works.
I have even started a homepage to disprove some of his strategies in backtesting them myself (www.dickreuter.com for those who are interested). There are many arguments for and against chart analysis, but it's very easy to show that it just doesn't work in the long run and if applied consistently.
I would still recommend the book for anybody interested in trading. I bought it a long time ago and learned a great deal of it how markets work.
Worth the price but you must do a lot of your own work. June 19, 2008
TraderF (Rochester, Mn USA)
There are some good ideas here but almost all of the back-tested systems are too curve-fitted using TDW (Trading Day of the Week -- e.g. never buy on a Thursday) and inter-market relationships (e.g. buy stocks only when bonds are going up).
I made my own system using only one of Williams' basic ideas, then parameterized it to use about 6 parms (e.g. stop value, distance from open, etc.) and back-tested it using about 15 years' data with all possible parm combinations.
With the best parm set this system gained about 100% per year, figuring percentage gains the way Williams does. It had rather low drawdown.
Then I modified it as follows. I selected the parm set that did the best for the first year, then used that parm set for the 2nd year and recorded those results. Then I ran all parm sets for the first 2 years, picked the best parm set and used it for the 3rd year. And so on.
These results then, are all from testing on out-of-sample data. Results over the same period (but only 14 years as year 1 results are not out-of-sample) were diminished by about half. But they are far more realistic than results obtained from 100% back-testing as Williams does.
I am writing this in the middle of June, 2008, using the best parm set as of the end of 2007. The system is up about 44% since the end of 2007, which is better than the long-term average.
I highly recommend this form of system development, which Williams does not use in this book. It takes a lot of work to do it right, but the results are worth it -- if you can stick to the rules you develop. Unfortunately, this will be even harder to do than developing the rules will be.
Good luck.
Great at first, then a flop March 11, 2008
O. Borrello
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
When I first encountered this book at the library I thought it was fantastic. It utilized methods of getting the odds on your side and used money management to make millions!
Well, once I tried his mostly badly explained techniques using Tradestation 2000i on S&P500 and Bond data from Norgate the results were not so flash. He also is a blatant lier. He mentions that each test in his book uses a $50 commission. Well they don't. Only very few of them do, as you can see from the System Writer printouts. As soon as you add commission, the hundreds of trades turn a super winning system into a dreadful loser.
Its a pity that this book doesn't deliver what it seems to but it is different and quite enjoyable to read; although you need to take notes as you go along!
I did learn one good thing. Find a system that offers you the edge, consistently, and use money management to make you rich.
I'm still going through the book (few weeks now) trying out some of his methods on different data, but the techniques don't hold up so well in real life.
 Full of Top notch Tradable ideas. October 23, 2007
Keith J. Chung (Los Angeles)
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
Many of the ideas in this book validated Larry Williams' previous market concepts in its totality thus proved that they do indeed have strong merits and he still has conviction in what he originally expounded on. The priciples surrounding concept known as 'Market structure' is basis for a lot of trading courses out there costing anywhere between a few hundred dollars to ten thousand dollars. Although I agree with Chuck Lebeau who stated in his book that Volatility Breakout system simply deteriorates going forward as new data enters into pictures, I strongly believe that with an individual trader's overall well-defined market context, it can prove to be an excellent entry strategy because it's based on sound market principles. This book is worthwhile for me, at least, to confirm my market belief. The cycle phenomenons occurring in range volatility and pattern shift in open and high are enough of valid reason to invest your time in this book. In the end, I picked up a few ideas worth adding to my trading repertoire.
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